Phase 2 · Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary ecosystem
Every sector has a Leader, Pioneer, Challenger, Median and Failure. The Median shows what normal looks like; the Failure teaches as much as the Leader.
LeaderAMZN
Ecosystem (Prime, AWS, ads) drives a wide moat. Reference for compounding revenue + reinvestment.
PioneerMCD
Founded 1955. Real estate + brand = unmatched franchise durability through inflation cycles.
ChallengerTSLA
Newest mega-cap. EVs + robotaxi + energy — three platform shifts in one ticker.
MedianBBWI
Specialty retailer — exhibits typical cyclical/discretionary behaviour without becoming structurally challenged.
FailureBBBY
Bankruptcy 2023. The textbook discretionary-decline story: secular shift + over-leverage + slow pivots.
Sector stats
- Avg 20y CAGR9.4%
- Avg survival19 years
- Median multiple19.0× P/E
- Avg drawdown-45%