Master framework · Consumer Discretionary
Tesla, Inc.
NASDAQ:TSLA · Automobiles · IPO 2010 · 16 years on the market. This is the master template — every company in the Pod is scored on the same axes.
Price CAGR
+38.4%
Earnings beat
53%
Max drawdown
-73%
Recovery
28m
01 · Company DNA
Static facts
Where the company comes from, how it's organized, who runs it, and where the money comes from.
Vertically integrated EV manufacturer, energy generation & storage, FSD/robotaxi software, services & supercharger network.
Revenue streams
- Automotive sales (74%)
- Automotive leasing (5%)
- Energy generation & storage (12%)
- Services & other (9%)
Geographic exposure
- USA49%
- China22%
- Europe18%
- Rest of world11%
02 · Financial DNA
Built from every SEC filing
Revenue, margins, EPS, FCF, balance sheet, capital returns, growth derived from all of it.
Revenue (USD B)
EPS (USD)
Free cash flow (USD B)
Margins
Cash
$29.1B
Debt
$9.6B
ROIC
9.8%
ROE
17.4%
Dilution (10y)
+41%
Buybacks (10y)
0%
R&D (10y)
$18.4B
CapEx (10y)
$38.2B
Growth
Capital allocation
03 · Market DNA
How institutions treated the stock
Beyond price: how the market behaved around this ticker — drawdowns, beta, ownership, splits.
IPO perf
+19.0%
Max drawdown
-73%
Recovery
28m
Beta
2.12
30d vol
56.4%
RS vs SPY (12m)
-8.3%
Institutional
49.2%
Insider
12.6%
Short interest
3.1%
Float
2,780M
Stock splits
- 2022-08-253-for-1
Index inclusion
04 · Earnings DNA
Every release is an event
Actual vs forecast vs prior-year for EPS and revenue. Beat %, miss %, surprise %, gap, 1d / 5d / 20d returns.
EPS beat rate
53%
32 quarters
Avg EPS surprise
-2.4%
Avg revenue surprise
+0.8%
Avg 20d return
+5.1%
| Quarter | EPS actual | EPS fcst | EPS surprise | Revenue actual | Rev surprise | 1d | 5d | 20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q2 20242024-07-23 | $0.52 | $0.62 | -16.1% | $25.5B | +2.8% | -12.1% | -8.4% | +4.2% |
Q3 20242024-10-23 | $0.72 | $0.58 | +24.1% | $25.2B | -0.8% | +12.3% | +21.4% | +38.1% |
Q4 20242025-01-29 | $0.73 | $0.76 | -3.9% | $25.7B | -5.2% | -2.4% | +6.1% | -8.7% |
Q1 20252025-04-22 | $0.41 | $0.53 | -22.6% | $19.3B | -9.0% | -7.1% | -14.6% | +4.2% |
Signature patterns
- Rallies despite missing EPS when margins expand
- Sells off hard when forward guidance is lowered
- Outsized 5d moves after deliveries beat (separate from earnings)
05 · Macro DNA
When does this ticker actually outperform?
Macro snapshot around every earnings event: rates, CPI, PPI, NFP, oil, DXY, VIX. Conditional returns by regime.
| Earnings date | Fed funds | CPI YoY | PPI YoY | NFP Δ | Oil | DXY | VIX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-23 | 5.50 | 3.0% | 2.6% | +114 | $78 | 104.6 | 14.2 |
| 2024-10-23 | 4.83 | 2.4% | 1.9% | +12 | $71 | 103.6 | 19.4 |
| 2025-01-29 | 4.33 | 2.9% | 3.0% | +143 | $73 | 107.5 | 16.0 |
| 2025-04-22 | 4.33 | 2.4% | 2.5% | +177 | $67 | 99.4 | 32.1 |
Regime-conditional 5d returns
- Fed cutting+4.8%6q
- Fed hiking-2.1%9q
- CPI cooling+3.6%7q
- VIX > 25-3.4%8q
- VIX < 15+2.7%6q
- Election year+5.9%4q
- Recession-8.2%3q
06 · Fundamental events
Every major event is another feature.
CEO change · acquisition · share offering · split · product launch · regulatory · factory opening · legal case.
- +22.4% (20d)
Stock split · 2020-08-11
5-for-1 stock split
First split since IPO. Shares jumped ~80% in the 30 days following the announcement.
- +18.7% (20d)
Product launch · 2021-10-25
Model Y expansion + Hertz 100k order
Hertz order announced. TSLA reached $1T market cap two days later.
- -12.6% (20d)
Acquisition · 2022-04-20
Twitter acquisition closed ($44B)
Highly dilutive deal, capital tied up. Forward 20d return negative on distraction fears.
- -9.0% (20d)
Stock split · 2022-08-25
3-for-1 stock split
Second split in two years. Forward 20d return −9%.
- +1.4% (20d)
Product launch · 2023-12-13
Cybertruck deliveries begin
First deliveries after 4-year delay. Initial reception mixed.
- +8.2% (20d)
CEO change · 2024-06-13
Musk ratifies $56B pay package
Shareholder vote. Forward 20d return strong on confirmation of leadership.
- +38.1% (20d)
Product launch · 2024-10-10
We, Robot — Cybercab & Robovan unveil
Robotaxi reveal at the Warner Bros lot. Forward 20d return +38% on robotaxi narrative.
- -11.0% (20d)
Regulatory issue · 2025-03-14
NHTSA escalates FSD investigation
Engineering analysis opened. Forward 20d return −11%.
07 · Behavioural DNA
Personality layer.
Probe questions, answered YES / NO / MIXED with sample size and evidence. Where the long-term edge lives.
- n=8YES
Does Tesla outperform after raising guidance?
+6.4% avg 5d return after guidance raise (vs +1.2% baseline)
- n=7YES
Sell off after good earnings?
3 of last 5 EPS beats were followed by sell-off within 5 days (profit-taking pattern)
- n=6YES
Rally after bad earnings?
2 of last 4 EPS misses still produced +5% return within 20 days
- n=5YES
Recover quickly from drawdowns?
Avg recovery time 9 months vs S&P 500's 18 months over the past decade
- n=16MIXED
Trade seasonally?
Strong Q4 (election + year-end); weak Q2 in choppy years
- n=4YES
Outperform in election years?
+5.9% avg 5d return around earnings in election years
- n=6YES
Outperform after Fed cuts?
+4.8% avg 5d return around earnings during Fed cutting cycles
- n=3NO
Outperform during recessions?
−8.2% avg 5d return; full-cycle drawdowns of >60%